Doncaster!
I shall，I think，remember that 11th of September all my life.
Indeed，whenever I see a mention of the St Leger my mind flies
automatically not to horse-racing but to murder.
When I recall my own sensations，the thing that stands out most is a
sickening sense of insufficiency.We were here-on the spot-Poirot，myself，
Clarke，Fraser，Megan Barnard，Thora Grey and Mary Drower，and in the last
resort what could any of us do?
We were building on a forlorn hope-on the chance of recognizing amongst
a crowd of thousands of people a face or figure imperfectly seen on an
occasion one，two or three months back.
The odds were in reality greater than that.Of us all，the only person
likely to make such a recognition was Thora Grey.
Some of her serenity had broken down under the strain.Her clam，
efficient manner was gone.She sat twisting her hands together，almost
weeping，appealing incoherently to Poirot.
"I never really looked at him......Why didn't I?
What a fool I was.You're depending on me，all of you......and I shall
let you down.Because even if I did see him again I mightn't recognize
him.I've got a bad memory for faces."
Poirot，whatever he might say to me，and however harshly he might seem
to criticize the girl，showed nothing but kindness now.
His manner was tender in the extreme.It struck me that Poirot was no
more indifferent to beauty in distress than I was.
He patted her shoulder kindly.
"Now then，petite，not the hysteria.We cannnot have that.If you should
see this man you would recognize him."
"How do you know?"
"Oh，a great many reasons-for one，because the red succeeds the black."
"What do you mean，Poirot?"I cried.
"I speak the language for the tables.At roulette there may be a long run
on the black-but in the end red must turn up.It is the mathematical laws of
chance."
"You mean that luck turns?"
"Exactly，Hastings.And that is where the gambler (and the murderer，who
is，after all，only a supreme kind of gambler since what he risks is not his
money but his life)often lacks intelligent anticipation.Because he has won
he thinks he will continue to win!He does not leave the tables in good time
with his pocket full.So in crime the murderer who is successful cannot
concerve the possibility of not being successful!He takes to himself all the
credit for a successful performance-but I tell you，my friends，however
carefully planned，no crime can be successful without luck!"
"Isn't that going rather far?"demurred Franklin Clarke.
Poirot waved his hands excitedly.
"No，no.It is an even chance，if you like，but it must be in your
favour.Consider!It might have happened that someone enters Mrs Ascher's shop
just as the murderer is leaving.That person might have thought of looking
behing the counter，have seen the dead woman-and either laid hands on the
murderer straight away or else been able to give such an accurate
description of him to the police that he would have been arrested
forthwith."
"Yes，of course，that's possible，"admitted Clarke."What it comes to is
that a murderer's got to take a chance."
"Precisely.A murderer is always a gambler.
And，like many gamblers，a murderer often does not know when to
stop.With each crime his opinion of his own abilities is strengthened.His
sense of proportion is warped.He does not say "I have been clever and
lucky!"No，he says only "I have been clever!"And his opinion of his
cleverness grows and then，mes amis，the ball spins，and the run of colour
is over-it drops into a new number and the croupier calls out "Rouge"."
"You think that will happen in this case?"
asked Megan drawing her brows together in a frown.
"It must happen sooner or later!So far the luck has been with the
criminal-sooner or later it must turn and be with us.I believe that it has
truned!The clue of the stockings is the beginning.
Now，instead of everything going right for him，everything will go wrong
for him!And he，too，will begin to make mistakes......"
"I will say you're heartening，"said Franklin Clarke."We all need a bit
of comfort.I've had a paralysing feeling of helplessness ever since I woke
up."
"It seems to me highly problematical that we can accomplish anything of
practical value，"said Donald Fraser.
Megan rapped out:
"Don't be a defeatist，Don."
Mary Drower，flushing up a little，said:
"What I say is，you never know.That wicked fiend's in this place，and so
are we-and after all，you do run up against people in the funniest way
sometimes."
I fumed:
"If only we could do something more."
"You must remember，Hastings，that the police are doing everything
reasonably possible.Special constables have been enrolled.The good Inspector
Crome may have the irritating manner，but he is a very able police officer，
and Colonel Anderson，the Chief Constable，is a man of action.They have
taken the fullest measures for watching and patrolling the town and the
race-course.There will be plain-clothes men everywhere.
There is also the press campaign.The public is fully warned."
Donald Fraser shook his head.
"He'll never attempt it，I'm thinking，"he said more hopefully."The man
would just be mad!"
"Unfortunately，"said Clarke dryly，"he is mad!What do you think，
M.Poirot?Will he give it up or will he try to carry it through?"
"In my opinion the strength of his obsession is such that he must
attempt to carry out his promise!Not to do so would be to admit failure，and
that his insane egoism would never allow.That，I may say，is also Dr
Thompson's opinion.Our hope is that he may be caught in the attempt."
Donald shook his head again.
"He'll be very cunning."
Poirot glanced at his watch.We took the hint.It had been agreed that we
were to make an all-day session of it，patrolling as many streets as
possible in the morning，and later，stationing ourselves at various likely
points on the race-course.
I say "we".Of course，in my own case such a patrol was of little avail
since I was never likely to have set eyes on A B C.
However，as the idea was to separate so as to cover as wide an area as
possible I had suggested that I should act as escort to one of the ladies.
Poirot had agreed-I am afraid with somewhat of a twinkle in his eye.
The girls went off to get their hats on.Donald Fraser was standing by
the window looking out，apparently lost in thought.
Franklin Clarke glanced over at him，then evidently deciding that the
other was too abstracted to count as a listener，he lowered his voice a
little and addressed Poirot.
"Look here，M.Poirot.You went down to Churston，I know，and saw my
sister-in-law.Did she say-or hint-I mean-did she suggest at all-?"
He stopped，embarrassed.
Poirot answered with a face of blank innocence that aroused my strongest
suspicions.
"Comment?Did your sister-in-law say，hint，or suggest-what?"
Franklin Clarke got rather red.
"Perhaps you think this isn't a time for butting in with personal
things-""Du tout!"
"But I feel I'd like to get things quite straight."
"An admirable course."
This time I think Clarke began to suspect Poirot's bland face of
concealing some inner amusement.He ploughed on rather heavily.
"My sister-in-law's an awfully nice woman-I've been very fond of her
always-but of course she's been ill some time-and in that kind of
illness-being given drugs and all that-one tends to-well，to fancy things
about people!"
"Ah?"
By now there was no mistaking the twinkle in Poirot's eye.
But Franklin Clarke，absorbed in his diplomatic task，was past noticing
it.
"It's about Thora-Miss Grey，"he said.
"Oh，it is of Miss Grey you speak?"
Poirot's tone held innocent surprise.
"Yes.Lady Clarke got certain ideas in her head.You see，Thora-Miss Grey
is well，rather a good-looking girl-""Perhaps-yes，"conceded Poirot.
"And women，even the best of them，are a bit catty about other women.Of
course，Thora was invaluable to my brother-he always said she was the best
secretary he ever had-and he was very fond of her，too.But it was all
perfectly straight and above-board.I mean，Thora isn't the sort of
girl-""No?"said Poirot helpfully.
"But my sister-in-law got it into her head to be-well-jealous，I suppose.
Not that she ever showed anything.But after Car's death，when there was
a question of Miss Grey staying on-well，Charlotte cut up rough.Of course，
it's partly the illness and the morphia and all that-Nurse Capstick says
so-she says we mustn't blame Charlotte for getting these ideas into her
head-"He paused.
"Yes?"
"What I want you to understand，M.Poirot，is that there isn't anything
in it at all.It's just a sick woman's imaginings.Look here"-he fumbled in
his pocket-"here's a letter I received from my brother when I was in the
Malay States.I'd like you to read it because it shows exactly what terms
they were on."
Poirot took it.Franklin came over beside him and with a pointing finger
read some of the extracts out loud.
"-things go on here much as usual.Charlotte is moderately free from
pain.I wish one could say more.You may remember Thora Grey?She is a dear
girl and a greater comfort to me than I can tell you.I should not have known
what to do through this bad time but for her.
Her sympathy and interest are unfailing.She has an exquisite taste and
flair for beautiful things and shares my passion for Chinese art.I was
indeed lucky to find her.No daughter could be a closer or more sympathetic
companion.Her life had been a difficult and not always a happy one，but I am
glad to feel that here she has a home and true affection.
"You see，"said Franklin，"that's how my brother felt to her.He thought
of her like a daughter.What I feel so unfair is the fact that the moment my
brother is dead，his wife practically turns her out of the house!Women
really are devils，M.Poirot."
"Your sister-in-law is ill and in pain，remember."
"I know.That's what I keep saying to myself.
One mustn't judge her.All the same，I thought I'd show you this.I don't
want you to get a false impression of Thora from anything Lady Clarke may
have said."
Poirot returned the letter.
"I can assure you，"he said，smiling，"that I never permit myself to get
false impressions from anything anyone tells me.I form my own judgements."
"Well，"said Clarke，stowing away the letter."I'm glad I showed it to
you anyway.Here come the girls.We'd better be off."
As we left the room，Poirot called me back.
"You are determined to accompany the expedition，Hastings?"
"Oh，yes.I shouldn't be happy staying here inactive."
"There is activity of mind as well as body，Hastings."
"Well，you're better at it than I am，"I said.
"You are incontestably right，Hastings.Am I correct in suppsoing that
you intend to be a cavalier to one of the ladies?"
"That was the idea."
"And which lady did you propose to honour with your company?"
"Well-I-er-hadn't considered yet."
"What about Miss Barnard?"
"She's rather the independent type，"I demurred.
"Miss Grey?"
"Yes.She's better."
"I find you，Hastings，singularly though transparently dishonest!All
along you had made up your mind to spend the day with your blonde angel!"
"Oh，really，Poirot!"
"I am sorry to upset your plans，but I must request you to give your
escort elsewhere."
"Oh，all right.I think you've got a weakness for that Dutch doll of a
girl."
"The person you are to escort is Mary Drower-and I must request you not
to leave her."
"But，Poirot，why?"
"Because，my dear friend，her name begins with a D.We must take no
chances."
I saw the justice of his remark.At first it seemed far-fetched.But then
I realized that if A B C had a fanatical hatred of Poirot，he might very
well be keeping himself informed of Poirot's movements.And in that case the
elimination of Mary Drower might strike him as a very pat fourth stroke.
I promised to be faithful to my trust.
I went out leaving Poirot sitting in a chair near the window.
In front of him was a little roulette wheel.He spun it as I went out of
the door and called after me:
"Rouge-that is a good omen，Hastings.The luck，it turns!"
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